A Below-Normal Hurricane Forecast Doesn’t Mean a Safe Season
There is a certain kind of relief that comes with hearing the words “below-normal hurricane season.”
Fewer storms are expected. Fewer hurricanes. Maybe South Florida gets through another year without much happening.
And to be clear, a quieter forecast is good news. NOAA’s August 6 update calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes in 2026. The agency gives the season a 75% chance of finishing below normal.
That is a meaningful reduction in activity. It just is not the same thing as an all-clear.
2026 Hurricane Season Update:
NOAA’s August outlook calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, with a 75% chance of below-normal seasonal activity. You can review the latest NOAA seasonal outlook directly.
What Does a Below-Normal Hurricane Forecast Actually Tell Us?
Hurricane forecasts are useful because they give us a sense of the conditions across the Atlantic basin.
This year, El Niño is a major part of the story. El Niño commonly increases vertical wind shear over parts of the tropical Atlantic, making the atmosphere less favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and organize. That is one reason forecasters have lowered their expectations for 2026.
So when forecasters say “below normal,” they really do mean there may be fewer opportunities for storms to form.
| Atlantic Activity | NOAA 2026 Outlook | 1991–2020 Average |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 7–13 | 14 |
| Hurricanes | 2–6 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes | 0–2 | 3 |
Does below normal mean South Florida is safe?
No. It means the Atlantic is expected to produce less overall activity. A seasonal outlook does not tell us where an individual hurricane will make landfall.
NOAA makes that distinction in its seasonal outlooks. These forecasts describe expected activity across the entire Atlantic basin. They are not forecasts for one particular location, and they cannot tell a homeowner in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton, or anywhere else whether their particular area will be hit.
That difference matters because hurricane risk is not evenly distributed. You could have a very active season in which most storms curve into the open Atlantic. You could also have a relatively quiet season in which one storm develops in exactly the wrong place.
South Florida has already lived through the second version.
Hurricane Andrew Came From a Quiet Season
If there is one hurricane season that makes the point better than any forecast explanation could, it is 1992.
The entire Atlantic season produced just seven named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. By modern standards, it was a substantially below-average season.
And the first named storm did not form until August 16.
Its name was Andrew.
Seven named storms formed in 1992. One of them destroyed more than 25,000 homes.
Eight days after forming, on August 24, Hurricane Andrew made landfall near Homestead as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 922 millibars.
Andrew destroyed more than 25,000 homes, left more than 160,000 people temporarily homeless, and caused an estimated $26 billion in damage in the United States. At the time, it was the costliest natural disaster in the country’s history.
You can read more about the storm through the National Weather Service’s Hurricane Andrew history.
The point is not that 2026 is going to repeat 1992. There is no basis for saying that, and a below-normal forecast really does mean the overall odds are lower.
The lesson is simpler than that: storm count and personal risk are two different things.
A season does not have to be busy to contain the storm that matters to your home.
Andrew Also Shows Why Wind Protection Matters
There is another part of Andrew’s history that gets lost when we focus only on its Category 5 rating.
Much of the devastation in South Florida came from wind. Andrew was relatively compact and moved quickly across the area. It did not need to sit over South Florida for an entire day to leave enormous damage behind.
That is important when thinking about what impact windows, impact doors, and hurricane shutters are actually designed to do.
An important limitation: Impact windows and shutters are not flood protection. They cannot stop storm surge from entering a neighborhood.
Their job is to protect the openings in the building envelope from wind pressure, wind-borne debris, and the rain that can enter after an opening is damaged.
Windows, sliding doors, entry doors, and other openings are all part of that system. That is also why hurricane protection should be looked at across the whole house rather than one room at a time.
Can You Protect Half Your Home and Still Get the Opening Protection Credit?
Florida updated its OIR-B1-1802 Uniform Mitigation Verification Inspection Form for use beginning April 1, 2026. Opening protection remains one of the features evaluated during a wind mitigation inspection.
The key point:
Under Citizens’ guidance for qualifying opening protection, all applicable exterior openings or glazed exterior openings must meet the required protection standard. Protecting most of the house and protecting all required openings are not necessarily the same thing.
Depending on the classification being evaluated, that can include windows, doors, skylights, vents, and other exterior openings.
That does not mean every opening has to use the same product.
For many South Florida homeowners, a combination can make more sense. Impact windows and doors may be preferred in areas where everyday convenience, natural light, or appearance matter most. Hurricane shutters can protect other openings without requiring every existing window to be replaced.
The right mix depends on the house, the openings, the homeowner’s priorities, and the budget.
Insurance credits also vary by carrier and policy, so homeowners should confirm the details with their insurance agent rather than treating any projected discount as guaranteed.
Not Sure Which Openings Still Need Protection?
A free quote only costs a few minutes but can save you thousands on hurricane protection.
A Quiet August Can Actually Be a Good Time to Get the Work Moving
One of the easiest reactions to a below-normal forecast is, “Maybe I’ll just wait until next year.”
That is understandable. Hurricane protection is a substantial home project, and nobody should buy windows or shutters because a forecast frightened them into making a rushed decision.
But there is another way to look at a quiet season.
It gives you time.
There is a difference between installation time and the entire process that comes before installation. Measurements have to be taken. Products have to be selected and ordered. Permitting has to move through the local jurisdiction. Then the project has to be scheduled.
Once Installation Begins
- 97% of projects under $20,000: Completed in one day or less.
- 97% of projects under $50,000: Completed in two days or less.
The part you do not want to discover during a hurricane watch is that you waited too long to start everything that comes before those installation days.
And there is no requirement that the answer be impact windows throughout the entire house. Assured Storm Protection works with impact windows, impact doors, shutters, and combinations of hurricane protection, which gives homeowners room to build a plan around the openings they actually have.
Financing options are also available, subject to approved credit, conditions apply.
Florida Homeowners Have Another Incentive to Look at in 2026
There is also a new Florida tax refund program worth knowing about if impact windows or doors are already on your list.
For qualifying purchases made from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2029, eligible Florida homeowners can apply for a refund of sales tax paid on certain home-hardening products, including qualifying impact-resistant windows, exterior doors, and garage doors.
The total refund is capped at $500 per eligible residence.
There are conditions: The property must be a qualifying site-built residence with a homestead exemption and a just value of $700,000 or less. The homeowner pays the sales tax first and applies for the refund afterward. It is not a point-of-sale discount.
Anyone considering the program should review the Florida Department of Revenue requirements directly before assuming a project will qualify, particularly when it comes to invoices and documentation.
The refund is not a reason by itself to replace your windows or doors. But if the project is already something you have been putting off, it is one more factor worth including in the decision.
We Are Entering the Part of Hurricane Season That Matters Most
The historical peak of Atlantic hurricane season is around September 10, with the busiest stretch typically running from mid-August into October.
So a quiet June and July can create a strange sense that the season has already told us what it is going to be.
It has not.
Andrew had not even formed at this point in August 1992.
That does not mean a major hurricane is coming. It means there is still enough season ahead that preparation should be based on the condition of your home, not on how many storm names have already been crossed off a list.
For homeowners who are unsure where they stand:
- Check every opening: Look at each window, exterior door, sliding glass door, and other opening and identify what is protected and what is not.
- Review your inspection: Check your most recent wind mitigation report so you understand how your current opening protection is classified.
- Compare your options: If you are considering upgrades, evaluate impact windows, doors, shutters, or a combination while you still have time to make the decision without storm pressure.
- A below-normal seasonal forecast means lower overall Atlantic activity, not zero South Florida risk.
- Hurricane Andrew came from a seven-storm season and did not form until August 16.
- Opening protection works best when you look at the entire building envelope rather than only the most visible windows.
- Starting early gives you time to compare products, complete permitting, and schedule installation on your terms.
A below-normal forecast is good news for South Florida. We should take the good news when we get it.
We just should not confuse lower risk with no risk.
The entire 1992 hurricane season produced seven named storms. South Florida remembers one of them more than three decades later.
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